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MARKET DATA
VIX DAILY
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VVIX DAILY
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SPY DAILY
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RVOL DAILY
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20d annualized
COR1M DAILY
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⚡ CRI COMPONENTS ⓘ
VIX ⓘ DAILY
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VVIX ⓘ DAILY
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CORRELATION ⓘ DAILY
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MOMENTUM ⓘ DAILY
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⚠ CRASH TRIGGER CONDITIONS ⓘ
INACTIVE
SPX < 100d MA
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Realized Vol > 25%
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COR1M > 35
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Intelligence
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Analyzing market conditions...
1-Week Outlook
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1-Month Outlook
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VIX & Implied Correlation — Time Series
Correlation Risk Premium
Spread = COR1M − RVOL
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IMPLIED PREMIUM
Regime Quadrants
RVOL on X, COR1M on Y
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CONTAGION ⓘ
High RVOL + High COR1M — systemic sell-off, all stocks moving together with elevated realized vol. Full risk-off regime.
LATENT RISK ⓘ
Low RVOL + High COR1M — surface appears calm but implied correlation is elevated. Diversification benefit may evaporate quickly.
IDIOSYNCRATIC ⓘ
High RVOL + Low COR1M — stocks are volatile but moving independently. Dispersion creates alpha opportunities for stock pickers.
BENIGN ⓘ
Low RVOL + Low COR1M — calm market with low correlation. Favorable conditions for diversified portfolios and carry strategies.
VIX Percentile Gauge
Historical Regime Log
| Date | From | To | VIX | COR1M | RVOL |
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Alert History
No alerts yet this session.
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CROSS-ASSET RISK APPETITE
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FACTOR LEADERSHIP
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| FACTOR | ETF | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD |
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VOLATILITY REGIME
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VIX LEVEL
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TERM STRUCTURE
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VIX 90D + BOLLINGER BANDS
IMPLIED vs. REALIZED
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HOW TO READ THE VIX
0 – 14
Extreme complacency. Options are cheap. Smart money buys protection here — the crowd is not hedging. Historically precedes spikes. Low VIX is NOT "safe" — it means risk is underpriced.
14 – 18
Normal market regime. Healthy implied vol, balanced positioning. This is the "goldilocks" zone — the market is pricing a reasonable amount of uncertainty without panic.
18 – 25
Elevated uncertainty. The market is pricing in a known risk event (earnings, FOMC, geopolitics). Options are getting expensive. Hedging is becoming crowded — watch for "sell the fear" opportunities on mean-reversion.
25+
Crisis territory. Panic hedging, forced liquidation, margin calls. VIX > 30 typically marks capitulation zones. VIX > 40 is rare (COVID, GFC, Aug 2024). Counterintuitively, these are often the best long entry points — maximum fear = maximum opportunity.
CONTANGO
Near-term VIX < longer-term VIX. Normal state — the market expects future uncertainty to be higher than today. Signals complacency; favors short-vol strategies.
BACKWARDATION
Near-term VIX > longer-term VIX. Panic state — the market expects MORE volatility NOW than in the future. This is the "fear inversion" — institutions are scrambling for immediate hedges. Historically a sell signal for equities.
IV > RV (FEAR PREMIUM)
Implied vol exceeds what the market is actually delivering. Options are expensive relative to actual moves. Sellers have edge. The wider this spread, the more fear is priced in — but unrealized.
RV > IV (COMPLACENCY)
The market is moving more than options are pricing. Dangerous — protection is too cheap. This gap usually closes violently with a VIX spike. Buy protection when it's cheap, not when you need it.
REGIME SYNTHESIS
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POSITIONING IMPLICATIONS
⟨ WHAT TO WATCH ⟩
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